What If? – Eli, and Archie, stick with San Diego
Quarantine Files is a series on LoganReardon.com, tackling different sports topics while we try to live without sports.
This week’s Quarantine Files will examine a series of the greatest “What if?” questions among quarterback decisions in the 21stcentury. This idea was inspired by NBC Sports Boston’s “Hindsight 2020” series running across their platforms currently.
Topics for the week include Peyton Manning’s Colts, Drew Brees’ Dolphins, Drew Bledsoe’s Patriots and Eli Manning’s Chargers.
What If?
If the Manning’s stuck with San Diego, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger end up in different places and the NFL is drastically different over the course of their careers.
One of the best quarterback draft classes in recent history came in 2004.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers have (so far) combined for 18 Pro Bowls and four Super Bowl victories. Perhaps more miraculously, they each played for the same team from 2004 through the 2019 season.
But they all almost ended up in different places.
Manning was the first pick, taken by the San Diego Chargers. General manager A.J. Smith knew, though, that Manning – or, the Manning family – didn’t want Eli in San Diego.
“[Manning's agent Tom Condon] told me that Archie [Manning] wishes that we do not select Eli, and that they think he would be a good fit in New York,” Smith told the San Diego Union-Tribune in 2004. “We had a good visit with Archie and expressed our vision for the future of this team and that there was a strong possibility that Eli might be picked by us with the first pick.”
The Giants heard of Manning’s desire to play in New York and sought a deal with the Chargers. The only problem? The Chargers’ Plan B was Rivers, whereas the Giants’ was Roethlisberger. New York and San Diego were unable to work out a deal prior to the draft, so Manning was initially a Charger. Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi took a chance and grabbed Rivers at No. 4, passing on Big Ben.
“Everybody thought my second choice was Rivers, but that wasn't the case -- Roethlisberger was,” Accorsi told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in 2016. “That was almost a jump ball with us – Roethlisberger and Eli. … I would have been happy with Rivers, but I wanted Ben. I took a risk. If he would have called back and said I'm backing out of this trade, there's no Ben for me.”
Roethlisberger fell to the Steelers at 11, and that’s how the story goes.
So, what if Manning was content in San Diego? What if the Chargers kept Eli, thus allowing the Giants to take Roethlisberger? Where does that leave Rivers?
Eli Manning and the Chargers
The Manning’s pose with the Chargers jersey on draft night looking none too pleased. (AP Photo)
Based purely on their numbers, Manning was the worst of these three. He threw for 4,000 yards seven times compared to 11 for Rivers. He had a 117-117 career record compared to 144-71-1 for Roethlisberger.
In San Diego, he likely sits behind Drew Brees like Rivers was forced to at first. Once he gains the starting job, he’d have been surrounded by an impressive offense. LaDainian Tomlinson was the best running back in football. Antonio Gates was one of the league’s top tight ends. There’s no doubt he’d have put up strong numbers.
The question becomes: Would he have been able to get over the hump? That’s what evaded Rivers during his 14 years as a starter. The Chargers made the AFC Championship Game once in his career, losing to the undefeated Patriots that Manning took down in the Super Bowl. Rivers played that game on a torn ACL, and the Chargers were probably good enough to win that game (if L.T.’s “sore knee” held up).
But is it fair to say Manning wins that AFC Championship and sets up a Chargers Super Bowl matchup with… Big Ben’s Giants? No, not really. Here’s why:
In the original trade, the Giants and Chargers swapped rookie quarterbacks, but New York also sent San Diego a 2004 third-rounder, a 2005 first-rounder and a 2005 fifth-rounder.
The 2004 pick became kicker Nate Kaeding – yes, the Chargers took a kicker with the second pick of the third round when guys like Chris Cooley, Jared Allen and Jason Peters were available. Kaeding was a Pro Bowler and left San Diego in 2012 as the most accurate kicker in NFL history at the time. Great résumé, but not the reason why I’m worried about Manning’s Chargers.
The 2005 first-rounder became Shawne Merriman, one of the most feared linebackers in the NFL during his first three seasons. Without Merriman anchoring that defense, the Chargers aren’t nearly the same team.
So, no, I don’t believe Manning has any more playoff success in San Diego than Rivers did. If anything, he’s got a bit less because of the talent around him. He would’ve ended up with a similar amount of postseason wins, and much worse regular season stats to show for it.
This pick could’ve been a mistake for the Chargers. They should be happy they ended up with Rivers, despite his winter shortcomings.
Ben Roethlisberger and the Giants
Big Ben and Justin Tuck could’ve been teammates in an alternate world. (Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)
Big Ben with the Giants is fun to consider. The Steelers’ defense in his early years was always a strength, and the same would’ve been true in New York. Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck is one of the league’s most terrifying D-lines.
But the offense was pretty impressive, too. Plaxico Burress, coincidentally enough, came over from Pittsburgh after Eli and Ben’s rookie year. Amani Toomer was a strong No. 2 option. Jeremy Shocker was a high-end tight end. Tiki Barker was a Pro Bowl running back in each of Manning’s first three seasons.
Big Ben wins at least two Super Bowls with the Giants. And he doesn’t fall into them after 10-6 and 9-7 seasons like Eli did, either. Roethlisberger and Tom Coughlin’s Giants because a steady, consistent force similar to Ben’s Steelers.
Manning did win those two Super Bowls, and no one can take those away. But those are the only two years he won a playoff game. He only made the playoffs in six of his 14 years starting, including just two of his final 10. Roethlisberger made the postseason in 10 of his 15 years, with one extra Super Bowl appearance and five more playoff wins.
Big Ben would’ve had a similar career path as he did in Pittsburgh, with more of his team success coming early on due to a strong veteran supporting cast. The same thing happens later, too. The Steelers gave him Antonio Brown and the Giants could’ve given him Odell Beckham Jr.
Roethlisberger can definitely say he would’ve had a similarly stellar career in either New York or Pittsburgh. Not one of the league’s all-time greats, but just a notch below.
Rivers and Manning. (AP Photo)
Philip Rivers and the…
We’re going to throw Rivers on the Steelers for this ‘what if,’ just to keep with the same three teams. And suddenly he becomes the guy whose career changes the most.
All three quarterbacks were dropped onto talented teams. But of the three, none are better run than Pittsburgh. The Steelers have been a consistent winner for decades, finishing with a losing record just seven times from 1972 until 2004.
If Rivers is thrown on Bill Cowher’s group, he brings the Steel City at least one Super Bowl.
Roethlisberger was shaky in Super Bowl XL, but the defense dominated the helpless Seahawks in a 21-10 victory. Big Ben had two interceptions and completed only 9 of 21 passes. He was excellent in the three playoff games to get there, but Rivers was fine in early-round playoff moments. Phil gets the job done for that first title.
It gets tougher the next few years as the defense ages and the team relies more on the emerging quarterback. Perhaps winning that Super Bowl in Year 2 changes Rivers’ big-game reputation and he wins even more than Ben. I’m not ready to go there, but I’ll give him one in that Steelers culture and environment.
Manning’s decision – or, his father’s – hurt Rivers most of all. The quarterback that ended up in San Diego was doomed, and the quarterback that ended up in Pittsburgh was blessed.
Rivers had the best numbers of all three, so matching the best statistical player with the best organization is a beautiful match.
Verdict
Manning’s decision affected the next 15 years of the NFL. Three of the top 10-to-15 quarterbacks in the league all swapping teams from their rookie seasons is wild to consider.
Eli is likely remembered as the most disappointing pick of the bunch. He has trouble winning in San Diego, unable to rely on a dominant defense and forced to win games on his own.
Big Ben somehow ends up with a similar career. Pittsburgh and New York were eerily similar, and set up for a quarterback to win Super Bowls early. Two great defenses with just enough offense to get the job done.
And poor Phil. Today, he’s remembered as the guy in this group who couldn’t get it done. While that’s true, people overlook just how good he was. His numbers eclipse anything Manning or Roethlisberger did, he just couldn’t get over the hump.
As Rivers would say… Gosh darn.