What If? – The Colts chose Manning over Luck in 2012
Quarantine Files is a series on LoganReardon.com, tackling different sports topics while we try to live without sports.
This week’s Quarantine Files will examine a series of the greatest “What if?” quarterback decisions in the 21st century. This idea was inspired by NBC Sports Boston’s “Hindsight 2020” series currently running across their platforms.
Topics for the week include Peyton Manning’s Colts, Drew Brees’ Dolphins, Drew Bledsoe’s Patriots and Eli Manning’s Chargers.
What If?
The Colts could’ve shook the NFL world by keeping Peyton Manning and trading the Andrew Luck pick in 2012.
Peyton Manning’s free agency in 2012 shook up the NFL for the simple reason that quarterbacks in their prime don’t usually change teams.
Now, you could easily argue Manning wasn’t exactly in his prime. He had already been to 11 Pro Bowls, been named First-Team All-Pro five times and won a Super Bowl in Indianapolis. He threw for 37, 55 and 39 touchdowns in his first three years as a Bronco, though, so even if he wasn’t his prime, he was still one of the league’s best quarterbacks.
But, what if Peyton’s Broncos career never happened? What if the Colts didn’t release him and instead traded the pick that became Andrew Luck?
There are multiple factors to consider.
Caldwell (left) hands the Lamar Hunt Trophy to Manning (right). (AP Photo/Rob Carr)
Indianapolis Colts
The most obvious chain-reaction involves the Colts.
In 2009, the Colts – under first-year head coach Jim Caldwell – lost to the Saints in the Super Bowl. The next season was a disappointment by their standards, finishing 10-6 and losing in the Wild Card to the Jets. (Never forget Mark Sanchez beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on the road in consecutive playoff games.)
After the 2010 season, the Colts used their franchise tag on Manning before agreeing to a five-year, $90 million contract extension in July. It seems like a hometown discount now (just $18 million per year average for a top-end QB), and it was a hometown discount then.
“While I appreciate Jim Irsay offering to make me the highest-paid player, I told him I’d rather he save that money and keep whoever it is… Joe Addai, Charlie Johnson, whoever that may be.
“I’m willing to take less than they’ve offered if they are going to take that money to keep players we need to keep and go get other players. All I want is for them to have the cap and the cash to keep the players they want to keep and to sign other players.’’
He saw Tom Brady doing the same thing in New England and wanted the same type of team success. Manning was a team player. Then, the team decided they weren’t a Manning player.
The deal came in July after Manning underwent neck surgery in May. The NFL lockout that summer forced him to rehab on his own, and he was later told by doctors his return to the field was not guarantee. He had a second surgery in September and missed the entire season, the first missed games of his 13-year career (208 consecutive regular season starts).
The Colts were a disaster in 2011. They started 0-13 before winning two of their final three games. There was way too much Curtis Painter – nine interceptions and five fumbles in eight winless starts.
It was a mess, but it was messy enough to net the No. 1 overall pick. They were in prime position to take Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, or trade down for a bevy of picks. The Colts chose the former, while also cleaning house. Caldwell and his entire staff were fired just two years removed from an AFC Championship. Bill Polian – the vice-chairman who drafted Peyton – was canned. All of Manning’s allies were gone and it was evident this tale wouldn’t have a storybook ending.
What if the Colts ran it back? What if they kept Manning, the staff and front office?
The Colts finished 11-5 in each of the first three years with Luck. They weren’t bad by any stretch, but they went 3-3 in the playoffs in those years and were nowhere close to a title.
Manning made the Super Bowl in Year 2 in Denver, then won it in his fourth and final year. His defense won that Super Bowl, so it’s hard to argue the Colts would’ve been any closer to a title had Manning stayed.
Would they have been marginally better and perhaps had a shot at making a Super Bowl? Sure, maybe. But that Colts offensive line was baaaaad. In 2013, the Colts used seven different O-line combinations in their 16 games. Luck was much better equipped to evade the constant pressure he was under. He paid for it later, of course, retiring in 2019 at just 29.
The bottom line is the Colts made the right decision. Manning wouldn’t have been able to stay healthy in that system. The Colts would’ve been in worse shape and Manning’s late-career surge never would’ve happened.
Depending on the draft pick return they could’ve gotten for the top pick, they could’ve helped solidify those weaknesses. But it was unlikely any rookies would’ve made the difference with Peyton’s limited time left.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos situation is even more fun to consider. Remember, they were coming off an 8-8 season led by… Tim Tebow. They went 1-4 with Kyle Orton, then 7-4 with Tebow and sneaking into the playoffs after winning a painfully bland AFC West:
1. Broncos, 8-8
2. Chargers, 8-8
3. Raiders, 8-8
4. Chiefs, 7-9
Elway (left) and Manning (right) after winning the 2013 AFC Championship Game. (AP Photo)
The team clearly had something. Eight wins with a quarterback like Tebow proved that. In the playoffs, Denver upset the Steelers in overtime. The Patriots ended Tebow-mania a week later, and GM John Elway knew they needed a legit quarterback to compete.
The defense boasted Pro Bowlers Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller. Ryan Clady and Zane Beadles helped a solid O-line. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker were one of the best receiving duos on the league.
All they were missing was Peyton. If he remained a Colt, options were limited. The Broncos traded back out of the first-round twice in 2012, from 25 to 31, then 31 to 36. They took Derek Wolfe, who just wrapped up a successful eight-year career as a Bronco.
Still, they had no quarterback. Elway took the tall Brock Osweiler at No. 57, and we all know he wasn’t the answer. But Russell Wilson went at No. 75, eight picks after the Broncos’ third-rounder. He definitely wasn’t tall enough for Elway to draft, but it’s a fun parallel to think about.
Could a young Russ do what an old Peyton did in Denver? Probably not in those early years. People remember Manning’s Broncos as a dominant team carried by the defense, but it was quite the opposite in those first few years. Russ obviously would have kept the Broncos relevant for longer, and one could argue they still have the same amount of Super Bowls (one).
Here’s another one. If the Broncos didn’t sign Peyton, would they have run it back with Tebow? He had flashes as a starter, but would John Fox have been the coach to innovate his offense around Tebow? Again, probably not. Outside of drafting Russell Wilson, this played out as well as it could for the Broncos.
Andrew Luck
So, the Colts trade the top pick and Luck ends up somewhere else. That leads me to even more hypotheticals.
Who trades up for him? Does he still fulfill his pre-draft hype without Bruce Arians as his OC? Does his career last longer than seven years?
The other teams that took a quarterback in the first two rounds of the draft were the Redskins (Griffin III, No. 2), Dolphins (Tannehill, No. 8), Browns (Weeden, No. 22) and Broncos (Osweiler, No. 57).
Washington was content to sit at No. 2 and snag Robert Griffin III, the Heisman Trophy winner. They are out.
Luck was sacked over 30 times in three of his five full-time seasons. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Miami was in the running for Peyton before missing out and drafting Ryan Tannehill. They definitely would’ve been a candidate. Tannehill was a controversial pick because he was recently converted from receiver. Tannehill started all 16 games as a rookie and Miami went a respectable 7-9. If the Dolphins had traded up for Luck and teamed him with their strong defense (seventh in scoring defense in 2012), they probably are a playoff team. And moving forward, they are a legit threat to the Patriots dynasty in the AFC East. This would’ve set up a lot of fun meetings between Luck and Brady.
The Browns are always a contender to take a quarterback. I have low confidence Luck would’ve had the same success in Cleveland. Their coach at the time was Pat Shurmur, who just got fired by the Giants after working with a rookie quarterback. On the bright side, the Browns likely would’ve had to give up No. 3 and No. 22 to get No. 1, which would’ve saved them from the infamous Trent Richardson era. Still, Luck in Cleveland doesn’t move the needle.
Last, we have the Broncos. This is undoubtedly the best situation for Luck. We know that because it was the best situation for his predecessor. If the Broncos had traded up for Luck and the Colts kept Manning, I have extreme confidence that Luck would still be in Denver today. He would’ve been surrounded with quality protection and weapons in his early years, and later been opposite a dominant defense. Denver wins more than one Super Bowl in this scenario, and still has a franchise quarterback today.
As for if he still becomes a franchise quarterback without Arians, I think there’s little debate. He was one of the top quarterback prospects in recent years, and – barring health – he was as close to a sure-thing as you could find.
Verdict
The Colts’ decision to cut Manning was the right one for both sides. Luck wasn’t a bust, but he also wasn’t set up to succeed.
The only real loser in this “What if” is Luck. Had a team with a different supporting cast drafted him, he might still be playing today.
"I've been stuck in this process. I haven't been able to live the life I want to live,” Luck said at his retirement press conference. “It's taken the joy out of this game. The only way forward for me is to remove myself from football.”
He sounded like a guy sick of being thrown around and running for his life every Sunday. The Colts’ O-line improved greatly later in his career and became one of football’s best, but it was too late. If Luck ends up in Miami or Denver, odds are he’s still playing MVP-level football.
The Broncos could’ve had better scenarios – trading up for Luck or simply drafting Wilson late – but you can’t argue with their actual result. Two AFC Championships and a Super Bowl in four years is something most franchises would take in a second.
As for Peyton, he’s the biggest winner.
Sure, ending your career with the same team that drafted you puts you in a different class. But not many quarterbacks can say that. Montana was forced out. Favre was forced out. Brady forced himself out. It just doesn’t happen. Manning is lucky he chose wisely during free agency and had a swoon late in his career similar to his Denver boss.