Pats shouldn't be tempted by Dalton's stability

Quarantine Files is a series on LoganReardon.com, tackling different sports topics while we try to live without sports.

Stidham or stability?

The Patriots have a choice to make – stick with Jarrett Stidham and the unknown he brings, or sign a proven, but limited veteran in Andy Dalton.

The Patriots haven’t had a quarterback problem since drafting Drew Bledsoe first overall in 1993.

Now, every quarterback that hits the open market is linked to New England.

Andy Dalton is the latest name on the list, following the likes of Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Derek Carr, among others. 

But as with the ghosts of quarterback rumors past, the prospect of adding Dalton gets a resounding “no” from me.

Close your eyes and picture this …

There are two doors in front of you. Let’s call them, “Door D” and “Door S.” Both doors are closed, and you can only open one.

Behind “Door D” is a solid, yet unspectacular quarterback. You know exactly what you’re getting. He won’t blow you away, but he won’t blow your playoff chances. Think 20-to-25 touchdowns and 12-to-15 interceptions with no redeeming characteristics. 

Opening “Door S” is a gamble. You aren’t sure what’s back there. It could be something worse than the other door, but you could also hit big. The ceiling is much higher simply because you don’t know. Of course, that also makes the floor a lot lower – which might not be a bad thing (hello, Trevor Lawrence?).

So, there you have it. The Patriots have “Door S” opened now, but the option is there to close it and open “Door D.”

Dalton, of course, is “Door D,” while Jarrett Stidham is “Door S.”

The Red Rifle just doesn’t move the needle for the Patriots.

Bill Belichick’s roster, as currently constructed, is depleted. Outside of Tom Brady, the Patriots lost key defensive contributors in Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton and Duron Harmon.

Even with a star quarterback – which neither Dalton or Stidham currently are – the Patriots aren’t a Super Bowl team. That’s why Stidham makes the most sense, and Dalton makes little to none.

With Dalton, the Patriots stay afloat. Afloat, as in, what? Eight wins? Maybe 10 wins and a Wild Card Weekend loss if all goes well? Then, they’re picking 20th in the draft again and are no closer to acquiring your future franchise quarterback.

Don’t be mistaken. Dalton’s had a fine career. He led the Bengals to the postseason five times in eight seasons (when he started at least 12 games). He made three Pro Bowls. His record as a starter was 70-61-2 (two ties in nine seasons is pretty impressive).

But he’s winless in his four postseason starts. His career touchdown-to-interception ratio is just under 2-1. And he’s 20-35-1 over the past four seasons after a strong start to his career, with his last Pro Bowl appearance in 2016.

That’s why Stidham – despite the complete unknown – still stands as a better starting option.

The way I look at it, there are three possible outcomes for him this season.

USA TODAY photo.

New England’s most ideal outcome, obviously, is that Stidham balls out. He shows off the impressive arm talent we saw at Auburn, and the intriguing mobility he flashed last preseason. Foxboro continues to churn out franchise quarterbacks and the Endzone Militia keeps shooting.

Second, and probably the least ideal of the three scenarios, is if Stidham is just average. He’s just Andy Dalton, basically. The Patriots are afloat, but are no closer to finding a franchise quarterback and are stuck with a middling draft pick. 

Lastly, Stidham could just be a complete dud. He was just a fourth-round pick, after all. For every Dak Prescott, there are plenty of Ryan Nassib’s, Mike Kafka’s and Bryce Petty’s. The overwhelming odds are that a fourth-round quarterback won’t turn into a franchise guy.

Strangely enough, it seems like lots of Patriots fans are rooting for this as they dream of Trevor Lawrence trading his Clemson orange for Patriot blue.

Any of these three options with Stidham is better than Dalton. With Dalton, you know you are getting that second scenario.

Stidham offers the highest upside, and if it doesn’t work out, the 2021 NFL Draft is loaded with quarterback prospects – even outside of Lawrence. Ohio State’s Justin Fields, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Georgia’s Jamie Newman all project as starting-caliber pros.

Roll with the 23-year-old. If he’s good, that’s great for Belichick and Co. If not, “we’re on to the 2021 NFL Draft.”