What If? – Belichick starts Bledsoe over Brady in SB36

Quarantine Files is a series on LoganReardon.com, tackling different sports topics while we try to live without sports.

This week’s Quarantine Files will examine a series of the greatest “What if?” questions among quarterback decisions in the 21stcentury. This idea was inspired by NBC Sports Boston’s “Hindsight 2020” series running across their platforms currently.

Topics for the week include Peyton Manning’s Colts, Drew Brees’ Dolphins, Drew Bledsoe’s Patriots and Eli Manning’s Chargers.

What If?

Drew Bledsoe saved the Patriots in the 2001 AFC Championship Game, and Bill Belichick could’ve changed NFL history by starting him in Super Bowl XXXVI.

You really thought I wouldn’t write about Tom Brady in this series? Ha, funny.

Drew Bledsoe, then 29 years old, was the Patriots’ franchise quarterback entering 2001. He was the No. 1 overall pick in 1993, made three Pro Bowls and gave the Patriots their second Super Bowl appearance in team history (Super Bowl XXXI loss to the Packers in January 1997).

Great credentials, but that’s not all. In March 2001, Bledsoe signed a then-record contract – 10 years, $103 million – locking him in for the rest of his prime.

"I remember feeling sad when Bobby Orr left (the Boston Bruins in 1976)," Patriots owner Robert Kraft said at the time. "I saw this as an opportunity to sign one of the great Patriots for the rest of his career."

Kraft (left), Bledsoe (center) and Belichick (right) announce Bledsoe’s record-setting deal. (Boston Globe photo)

What happened next is a story told plenty of times, so I’ll make it brief. I promise.

Bledsoe took a hard hit in Week 2 against the Jets, knocking him out with a sheared blood vessel in his chest – and reportedly was close to death. The Patriots got hot, and Brady led them to the playoffs even after Bledsoe was healthy and on the active roster.

While that date with the Jets was his final start as a Patriot, it wasn’t his final snaps. In the AFC Championship Game, with the Patriots leading 7-3 late in the second quarter, Brady left with an injury. Bledsoe took over and led them to a 24-17 win, finishing 10 of 21 for 102 yards and a touchdown.

But what if that performance was enough to sway Bill Belichick? Brady was only 12 of 18 for 115 yards before exiting, and the offense was scoreless with Brady under center (lone TD came on a Troy Brown punt return).

Belichick went with Brady and changed the course of football history. Brady and Belichick won six titles over the next 19 years. Bledsoe was traded to the Bills and started 70 more games in Buffalo and Dallas.

So, for our exercise, let’s say Belichick trusts the veteran Bledsoe over the former sixth-rounder Brady.

Here’s how each party would’ve changed forever.

Bledsoe’s reaction after winning SB36 would’ve been a bit different if he started. (AP Photo)

Drew Bledsoe 

Does Bledsoe win three of four Super Bowls like Brady did? No.

Sure, the Patriots were a solid team. But the culture changed that season with Brady.

The Patriots were 0-2 with Bledsoe after two weeks, and went just 5-11 the year prior. There’s no guarantee they stay clicking once Bledsoe returns.

He could’ve won that first Super Bowl, but getting back to the other two seems unlikely. The Rams weren’t prepared for Bledsoe and had limited film on him from that season. Each game is different, but anything can happen once you get into the Super Bowl (see: Nick Foles).

But even if Belichick started Bledsoe in Super Bowl XXXVI and won, I’m convinced Brady is starting for the Patriots Week 1 in 2002.

Think about it. Bledsoe just signed a $102 million deal. He would’ve been coming off a Super Bowl win, presumably. That is a prime trade chip, especially with Brady making $375,000 in base salary in 2002. It’s a deal that has Belichick’s name written all over it.

So – even if he starts that Super Bowl – I think it’s his last Patriots start. Brady was already just as good, if not better, and came at a fraction of Bledsoe’s cost.

But by having that Super Bowl start on his résumé, Bledsoe’s career is probably extended longer than 2006. Just look at Joe Flacco, who’s played seven years after winning Super Bowl XLVII MVP and thrown over 20 touchdowns in just one of those years.

Bledsoe could’ve earned a lot more money by starting that game, but his ticket out of town was already waiting back home in his Foxboro locker – win or lose.

Brady, 24, after SB36. (Boston Globe photo)

Tom Brady

Is it a hot take to not have a hot take?

So, Brady doesn’t start his first Super Bowl. We don’t get the famous game-winning drive. We don’t get John Madden urging the Patriots to play for overtime. And we don’t get the iconic photo of young Brady with his hands on his head, shocked at what he’d just accomplished. 

But is it a stretch to think Brady still has a productive career in New England? I already laid out what happens. Brady is starting in 2002 no matter what.

One of two things could happen that season.

In the real 2002, Brady’s Patriots struggled to a 9-7 record and missed the playoffs – the only season in his career he missed the playoffs as a starter. If something similar happens and Brady doesn’t have the Super Bowl to fall back on, the Patriots likely bring in some competition for him in 2003. After all, he’s a sixth-round pick whose lone playoff highlight is a little-known Tuck Rule that helped his team move on.

The other thing that could happen is Brady shines in 2002 with something to prove. He got benched after getting the team all the way, and now he’s playing angry (angrier?). Chip-on-his-shoulder Tom Brady is the best Tom Brady, as we know by now.

The odds of Brady winning six rings if we ran it all back is miniscule. So many of the plays that won each title were essentially coin flips that went in Brady’s favor more often than not.

Brady is a very good-to-great quarterback and probably wins a few rings if he doesn’t start that first Super Bowl. His teams and coaches were too good. But is he the GOAT? Likely not. How many GOAT stories start with the guy getting bench in the biggest game of his career?                                  

Bill Belichick

Would Belichick have had all these rings if he started Bledsoe in SB36? (Photo: Patriots.com)

Saving the best hypothetical for last.

People forget it, but Belichick’s track record as a head coach before 2001 was suspect at best. He went 36-44 in five seasons with the Browns, including just one winning season. His first year with the Patriots ended 5-11. He was 0-2 to start 2001. That’s a 41-57 record before Brady.

He’s 232-70 since, but does that happen if he starts Bledsoe and changes the course of Brady’s career? Similar to Brady, Belichick probably doesn’t reach his current status if he went with Bledsoe. Everything in the NFL is so fluid. Changing just one thing can upset the balance of power and start a chain reaction.

Belichick likely coaches the Patriots for the foreseeable future, but with Brady not the Brady we know today, the door could’ve opened for him to leave.

His leash certainly would’ve been much shorter. Rather than having him on one of those retractable leashes that lets the dog run out, Kraft would’ve had him on a traditional one. A bad season or two after winning just one or two titles instead of six changes things for sure. 

With this decision, Belichick drops himself down to the class of his mentor Bill Parcells. He likely switches between a few teams with varying degrees of success. But he’s not on the Bill Walsh, Tom Landry level.

In the real world, Belichick’s created his own level of coaching, and it’s a party of one. Just the way he likes it.

Verdict

Safe to say this doesn’t happen if 2001 goes differently. (Photo: Patriots.com)

This is a hypothetical that football fans long for to be true. The Patriots’ reign in the NFL is much shorter. Brady isn’t quite as perfect. And they don’t have to see Kraft blabber about The Patriot Way every other year on the Super Bowl stage.

In terms of the Patriots’ starting quarterback of the future, this decision wouldn’t change much. Brady was the guy going forward, with or without the Super Bowl start. Trading Bledsoe just made too much sense, because it allowed the Patriots to retool around an already Super Bowl-ready roster. 

Brady still becomes great because that’s just his mental makeup. He isn’t quite as successful, but he still makes a name for himself and wins a title or two on his own.

Belichick takes a huge hit here too, and possibly becomes more of a coaching nomad. 

Even if you hate them – which I understand – the 21st century in the NFL wouldn’t have been as fun without the villain that was Brady and Belichick’s Patriots.