Overlooked by most, but on my radar

Quarantine Files is a series on LoganReardon.com, tackling different sports topics while we try to live without sports.

Free agency has essentially come and gone.

Tom Brady is a Buccaneer. Philip Rivers is a Colt. Amari Cooper and Dak Prescott are still Cowboys.

Jadeveon Clowney, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston are the top unsigned players, but adding any of them won’t change your fortune at this point.

Clowney has never topped 10 sacks or 60 tackles despite being one of the most hyped defensive prospects in recent memory. Newton played just two games last year and is now five years removed from his MVP campaign. And Winston last season became the only player in league history with 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in the same season. He will win you some games, but he’ll lose you a lot more.

The draft is the final outlet teams will have to address their needs. So, with rosters largely set, lots of “post-free agency” power rankings have been trickling out. While plenty of the top teams will stay there all season – hello, Kansas City and Baltimore – some teams are being underrated.

Photo by Will Lester, Inland Valley Daily Bulletin/SCNG

Los Angeles Chargers (Last season: 5-11; Average power ranking: 19.2)

ESPN: 24 | NFL.com: 24 | NBC Sports: 14 | USA Today: 13 | The Score: 21

Added: Chris Harris, Linval Joseph, Bryan Bulaga, Trai Turner

Lost: Philip Rivers, Thomas Davis Sr., Melvin Gordon, Russell Okung

The Chargers are the biggest sleeper heading into 2020. Some would argue the franchise has been asleep for years, but I’m not going there.

Philip Rivers has started the last 235 regular season and playoff games for the Bolts (second longest streak all-time). For 14 years, he has been under center every week. It’s going to be foreign to see another quarterback slinging it in the powder blue’s late on a Sunday afternoon. But what Rivers leaves behind is the most talented supporting cast he’s had since LaDainian Tomlinson and Shawne Merriman were in town.

Let’s start off with that defense. Gus Bradley’s unit ranked sixth in total defense (fifth in passing, 18thin rushing) last season despite LA’s 5-11 record. Second-year safety Derwin James played just five games due to injuries after a First-Team All-Pro selection as a rookie. Veteran safety Adrian Phillips played only seven after a First-Team All-Pro bid in 2018. Melvin Ingram, a perennial stud on the edge, missed three games.

Through all the injuries, that defense is what won the Chargers games in 2019. Phillips is off to New England, but getting a full season from James and Ingram will provide critical value.

Chris Harris has been a Pro Bowler in four of the last six seasons and reportedly will play exclusively as a slot corner in his first season in LA. The Chargers ranked 20th in DVOA against the pass last season, so adding one of the best in the league to that unit is huge. Try passing on a secondary that includes Harris, James, Casey Hayward, Michael Davis and Desmond King II. Division-rival Patrick Mahomes probably can and will, but normal human quarterbacks are going to struggle.

The other side of the ball is what led to the double-digit loss total. Rivers’ 20 interceptions was third-most in the NFL. The 31 giveaways by the offense ranked fourth in the league and topped the AFC.

To recompense that, Anthony Lynn’s team is going from one of the league’s most careless passers to one of the league’s safest.

Tyrod Taylor is in line to start. The team seems content to roll with him, even with higher-upside guys like Newton and Winston ripe for picking. In Taylor’s three full seasons as the Bills’ starter, he threw 51 touchdowns to 16 interceptions. He’s ultra-safe with the ball. That can be a good thing, obviously, in terms of not making mistakes, but he tends to shy away from big plays. As Bruce Arians says, “No risk-it, no biscuit.” Rivers has lived by Arians’ motto in recent years, so perhaps Taylor will be the change-of-pace that this team needs.

One last thing on the Chargers. Their expected win-loss record last season was 7.8-8.2, according to Pro Football Reference. That stat takes into account points scored and allowed, essentially meaning the Chargers lost a lot of close games.

Limit a few turnovers with a safer quarterback, create a few more with a healthier defense and that record could push 10 or 11 wins.

Pre-draft record prediction: 10-6

Photo by Michael Laughlin/South Florida Sun Sentinel

Miami Dolphins (Last season: 5-11; Average power ranking: 25.4)

ESPN: 25 | NFL.com: 26 | NBC Sports: 23 | USA Today: 26 | The Score: 27

Added: Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jordan Howard, Ereck Flowers, Kamu Grugier-Hill, Elandon Roberts, Ted Karras

Lost: Reshad Jones

The biggest winner of free agency is still being discounted across power rankings. Five major outlets seriously think the Dolphins will be the seventh-worst team in the NFL this season?

Miami finished in a three-way tie for the fifth-worst record this year. The Panthers (5-11 last season) are totally rebuilding. Likewise for the Jaguars (6-10). The Dolphins have an NFL-high 14 draft picks and added five starter-level players (Jones, Van Noy, Lawson, Ogbah, Howard), per PFF’s player grading scale.

The Dolphins started the season 0-7, losing by an average of 23 points per game and losing by 40 or more twice. It had most declaring this a total tank job – something rarely seen in the NFL but praised and popularized in the NBA. Then, the Fins won five of nine to close the season, capped off by a season-defining upset in New England Week 17.

Combine all those factors, and people still don’t think they win more than five or six games next year?

Look, I get it. The hot-and-cold Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the de facto starting quarterback. He was even their reading rusher last season, too. I expect FitzMagic to be the QB1 heading into camp.

If Miami can grab Tua Tagovailoa at No. 5 or trade up for him in the draft, this offseason will go down as the greatest pillage since the Eagles’ Dream Team offseason in 2011. What? Too soon, Philly? The thing is, Miami would be thrilled to finish 8-8 like that Eagles team did. That would be unprecedented progress in Year 2 of a rebuild that was expected to last half a decade. But when you look at the roster and the staff that Brian Flores has assembled, it’s not unrealistic.

The AFC East is clearly there for the taking. The Wicked Witch of the Northeast lost its magic wand, and the two peasants in New York have been just as hopeless as Miami for the past 20 years. Quick power rankings sans the Patriots:

QB – 1. Josh Allen, 2. Ryan Fitzpatrick, 3. Sam Darnold

HB – 1. Le’Veon Bell, 2. Jordan Howard, 3. Devin Singletary

CB – 1. Jones/Xavien Howard, 2. Tre’Davious White, 3. Brian Poole

HC – 1. Sean McDermott, 2. Flores, 3. Adam Gase

It’s a toss-up between Buffalo and Miami as the non-New England favorite. Add in a hungry group of high-end draft picks (Miami has three firsts and two seconds) and a proven group of veteran free agents, and the Dolphins could be one of the NFL’s most improved teams.

They’ll be right in the mix for that third and final Wild Card spot in the new playoff format.

Pre-draft record prediction: 7-9

Arizona Cardinals (Last season: 5-10-1; Average power ranking: 18.6)

ESPN: 21 | NFL.com: 23 | NBC Sports: 23 | USA Today: 12 | The Score: 14

Added: DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Phillips, De’Vondre Campbell, Devon Kennard

Lost: David Johnson, Damiere Byrd, Pharoh Cooper, Zach Kerr

The Dolphins had the best free agency as a whole, but the Cardinals undoubtedly hit the farthest home run.

Not only did they add a top-five receiver in DeAndre Hopkins, they rid shed the remaining two years on David Johnson’s contract. In the same deal! Just wait, it gets better. The Cards only surrendered a 2020 second-rounder and a 2021 fourth-rounder, and got back a fourth-rounder, too.

To sum up this absurd trade that wouldn’t even work in Madden:

Texans receive – David Johnson (and his contract), a second-round pick, a fourth-round pick

Cardinals receive – DEANDRE HOPKINS, a fourth-round pick

Last year’s No. 1 pick Kyler Murray gets a high-end wideout to pair with the ageless Larry Fitzgerald and ascending Christian Kirk. And they didn’t even have to mortgage their future draft capital to do it.

None of this is meant to take away from Johnson. He scored 10 or more touchdowns each year he’s played 16 games (three of his five seasons). Health is a major problem, and a running back creeping up in age (turns 29 in December) with his history spells trouble. General manager Steve Keim foreshadowed this move with his midseason trade for Kenyan Drake, but few believed he could get someone to eat all of Johnson’s deal. I suspect Bill O’Brien will receive a Christmas card from the Keim family this winter.

The offense has been addressed. It was decent last season, but will be above average in 2020. As for the defense, DC Vance Joseph would take average. The unit ranked 23rd in defense DVOA in 2019, and was dead last in total yardage.

Last year’s rookie defenders Byron Murphy, Zach Allen and Deionte Thompson showed flashes, but adding Jordan Phillips, Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell will thrust this group up to league-average at worst.

The problem for Arizona is their division. All four teams realistically should be in the playoff hunt. San Francisco made the Super Bowl last season. Los Angeles represented the NFC the season prior. Seattle has done so twice in the past seven years. Six games per year are going to be bar fights, but the Cards do have the benefit of the last-place schedule. That means a pair a cupcake dates with the rebuilding Lions and Panthers. The NFC West is also set to play the NFC East – the worst division by far in 2019 (9-7 won the division). Scheduling is on Arizona’s side.

Jumping from five wins to double-digits isn’t a simple task. Adding a few great players makes things easier, but nothing is given. But the Cardinals should realistically expect to make the playoffs in 2020.

Pre-draft record prediction: 9-7