How the AFC East stacks up, post-Patriots dynasty
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No division has been less competitive since 2001 than the AFC East. In 2020, that all changes.
In the past 19 seasons, three of the division’s four teams have won the AFC East. The Jets in 2002, the Dolphins in 2008 and the Patriots 17 times.
The GOAT is finally gone, and the division figures to be more equal in 2020.
But, who’s the favorite? Each team makes a compelling case.
Photo from WGR 550 SportsRadio
1.Buffalo Bills (10-6 last year, +140 to win the division)
Josh Allen’s leap from Year 1 to Year 2 was remarkable.
Just look at the numbers – Allen improved in passing yards per game (172.8 to 193.1), completion percentage (52.8% to 58.8%), touchdown passes (10 to 20), and interception (12 to 9). He’s clearly not an accuracy guy, but his improvement as a runner makes him an invaluable weapon. The plays he made with his feet in the Bills’ playoff loss to the Texans showed his fearlessness.
This offseason, the Bills added Stefon Diggs in a trade with the Vikings. Another speedy deep-threat to pair with John Brown. These are the types of weapons that Allen needs as he unloads the cannon on deep balls. His accuracy isn’t always there, but slinging it out there to guys who run 4.3s isn’t a bad plan.
The defense largely carried Buffalo to the postseason last year. Tre’Davious White emerged as a top-five corner in the league and Tremaine Edmunds continued to play like one of the league’s better young linebackers. Leslie Frazier’s unit lost its two sack-leaders from 2019 in Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson, but second-year D-tackle Ed Oliver is primed for a breakout.
Sean McDermott is one of the brightest young coaches in the league, though he doesn’t get the shine that young offensive minds do. He’s taken the Bills to the playoffs in two of his first three years after the team failed to get there in the prior 17.
It would be on-brand for the Bills to find a way to blow this golden opportunity to rule the East for the next few years. The Patriots don’t have Brady, the Jets have Adam Gase and the Dolphins are still rebuilding.
The table is set for Bills Mafia to win the division – or jump through and break it, at least. Whatever they prefer.
Getty Images
2. New England Patriots (12-4, +100)
The Patriots remain the odds-on favorite despite losing Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton and, of course, Brady.
Second-year man Jarrett Stidham will likely start at quarterback, with veteran Brian Hoyer backing him up. Brady’s 24 touchdown passes aren’t impossible to replicate – 12 quarterbacks had more in 2019 – but replicating his leadership and cultural impact is nearly impossible.
It’s not often that an all-time great retires or leaves a team and the team stays relevant. The Colts went 2-14 with Peyton Manning out before Andrew Luck fell onto their lap. The Chicago Bulls missed the playoffs for six straight years after Michael Jordan retired. LeBron’s Cavaliers have missed the playoffs all six years he’s been gone.
Rebuilds take time. Are the Patriots really rebuilding, though? Their defense was record-setting for most of last season. Their already-solid offensive line will have another year of continuity. The only question surrounds their unproven quarterback. Sounds a lot like the 2008 Patriots, who lost Brady in the season-opener and went 11-5 with lifetime backup Matt Cassel.
Stidham showed some exciting flashes in his first preseason, and got a lot of practice run with the first unit during the season as Brady nursed various injuries. Perhaps that was just Belichick seeing the writing on the wall and giving the Auburn product a shot.
I wouldn’t have the Patriots as the favorite, but I understand why oddsmakers do. It’s too risky to bet against Belichick after all these years.
That defense will keep the team relevant if their quarterback can’t.
AP Images
3.Miami Dolphins (5-11, +1200)
Shaking up the order just a bit here. It seems foolish not to throw something at the Dolphins getting 12-to-1 in a wide-open division after the offseason they just had.
We covered it yesterday in my column, but the Dolphins won the offseason. Adding five starter-level players – including two from the Patriots and one from the Bills – is a swindle.
The Fins still hold five picks in the first two rounds of this month’s draft, and they’d be wise to go get Tua Tagovailoa. With or without Tua, Ryan Fitzpatrick is likely the QB1 when the season begins. He was superb in his role last year, willing Miami to five wins after many thought they’d challenge the 2008 Lions’ 0-16 record.
Miami had the worst defense DVOA last year by a wide margin. They traded Minkah Fitzpatrick after two games and Xavien Howard missed 11 due to injuries. Now, with Kyle Van Noy, Byron Jones, Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah coming in, that defense should jump to league-average at worst.
The only questionable move of this offseason was firing offensive coordinator Chad O’Shea right after the season. He was the former WR coach with the Patriots before following Brian Flores and receiving the promotion to OC. The Dolphins’ offense obviously wasn’t great in Year 1, but they won five of their last nine games with a journeyman quarterback and no starting-caliber running backs or receivers outside of DeVante Parker.
Chan Gailey will come out of retirement to take the position in 2020, which could help the younger talent (that will be added in the draft). Gailey has been in the NFL since the 1980s, so he has the ability to teach better than the inexperienced O’Shea. I just would’ve liked to see O’Shea get a shot with some more talent in Year 2.
The Dolphins will be much-improved in 2020, and they’re a threat to challenge Buffalo and New England. A season around .500 should be the expectation in South Beach.
Photo from USA TODAY
4. New York Jets (7-9, +800)
The Jets had clear holes on the offensive and defensive line and at wide receiver, and have done little to address it so far.
Their big signing to fill out the O-line? George Fant. Three years and $30 million for a guy who was a backup in Seattle, where the O-line isn’t exactly high-end.
They’ve added nobody to the defensive line, and are left hoping and praying Quinnen Williams shows more in Year 2. Maybe they’re waiting on Jadeveon Clowney? Who knows.
At receiver, they let No. 1 Robby Anderson walk and added Breshad Perriman. Not ideal. It seems like they have to go receiver with the 15th pick, but those other two needs loom large as well.
The Jets simply have to do a better job with Sam Darnold. He’s entering Year 3 and has clearly shown something. The USC product hasn’t been a star by any means, but he has potential. Lining him up behind a weak offensive line with little talent to throw to is not how you get the most out of a young quarterback.
Year 3, 4 and 5 of a quarterback’s rookie contract are when the team is supposed to make winning moves. The highest-paid position player is still cheap and the talent around him should be plentiful. Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs made the Super Bowl in Year 3. Jared Goff made the Super Bowl in Year 3. Russell Wilson brought the Seahawks there in Year 2 and 3. Darnold clearly hasn’t shown what any of those three did in their early years, but the team around him hasn’t helped, either.
Expect more of the Jets in 2020. Despite losing Tom Brady, the AFC East is much-improved. The Jets… are not.