Cam Newton, Patriots find each other with nothing to lose
Well, that was unexpected.
Instead of rolling with second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham, the Patriots signed Cam Newton last Sunday to compete for Tom Brady’s old job.
I’ll admit, I thought Bill Belichick was comfortable with Stidham and Brian Hoyer as his quarterbacks. But thinking you know what’s going on in Belichick’s mind is always a mistake.
It’s hard to find two quarterbacks more different than Brady and Newton – and that’s what makes this move so intriguing.
Brady’s rushed for 1,037 yards in his 20-year career. Newton topped that number after his 24th career game.
Newton’s thrown for 25 or more touchdowns in a season just once in his nine-year career. Brady’s done it 14 times.
The differences between the two quarterbacks is obvious, but that doesn’t mean Newton won’t work in Foxboro.
He’s a former NFL MVP with a career 68-55-1 record as a starter despite having limited weapons in Carolina. Steve Smith was at the end of his career when Newton arrived, and Christian McCaffrey was at the beginning of his when Newton left. The leading receivers when the Panthers went to the Super Bowl in 2015 were Greg Olsen (a tight end), Ted Ginn Jr. and Jerricho Cotchery. Newton has proved he can make it work with any supporting cast.
While the Patriots don’t have the best skill position group in the NFL, the offensive line is still strong and the defense will be above average. That alone is enough to put a team in playoff contention, especially with the third wild-card spot available beginning this season.
Stidham might be a good quarterback. I talked myself into him back in April, predicting that he had a bright future and that the Patriots could make the playoffs if he limited turnovers. Still, he’s a fourth-round pick who was just OK in college and has no regular season NFL experience. The Patriots’ roster is too talented to risk punting this year for an unknown at the game’s most important position.
Again, this isn’t to say Stidham won’t be a solid quarterback. He very well could be. And if he’s really that good, he’ll beat out Newton to win the starting job. Belichick isn’t going to just hand it to Newton.
But when a 31-year-old former MVP is available for just $550,000 guaranteed, you have to pull the trigger. The risk is nonexistent at that price. If he’s injured (as he has been frequently), Stidham gets his shot. If Newton is healthy, the Patriots are an immediate threat in the AFC.
Where Cam becomes SuperCam
Mobility
Obvious, but I still want to talk about it.
Newton is third all-time in career rushing yards by a quarterback (4,806), behind only Michael Vick (6,109) and Randall Cunningham (4,928). He tops all quarterbacks in career rushing touchdowns with 58.
He will bring a dimension to Josh McDaniels’ offense that we haven’t seen with the Patriots. Brady was one of the best in the league at avoiding sacks and sensing pressure in the pocket. Newton isn’t as gifted in that way, but he makes up for it with his athleticism.
The Patriots have seen it firsthand.
That was a much younger version of Newton, but he’s still just 31. A version of that is likely still there. He’s not Lamar Jackson, but his abilities to escape pressure and make a play are impressive.
Part of the reason Newton had to be so mobile was because of his offensive line.
According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers’ offensive line ranked fifth in the NFL during Newton’s rookie season. But the unit has ranked outside the top 10 in the NFL in each of the past eight seasons. It’s been in the bottom half of the league in four of those eight years.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have had a top 10 O-line for the past 13 seasons, per Football Outsiders. In the past three years, the Patriots’ line has ranked ninth (‘19), third (‘18) and first (‘17).
Combining a great offensive line with a mobile quarterback is a recipe for success. The Ravens had the No. 3 O-line in 2019, and Lamar Jackson won MVP.
This is no guarantee Newton will win MVP. He might not even make it to Week 1 healthy. But the tools are there for him to succeed in ways he hasn’t before.
Size and strength
Newton is great, not only because of his mobility, but his size and strength as a quarterback.
Standing at 6-foot-5, 245 pounds, Newton looks more like an edge rusher than a quarterback. For reference, Chandler Jones – who leads the NFL with 60 sacks since 2016 – is 6-foot-5, 265 pounds.
His size and strength become especially useful in the redzone, where extra yardage means everything. Having the tools that he has, Newton gives the offense so many options inside the 20.
This is an area where the Patriots struggled most last season. In the playoff loss to the Titans, the Patriots couldn’t punch it in from the goal line after repeated attempts. That was a theme all season, as the team finished 26th in redzone offense. New England lacked the power to finish drives.
In the past, it was LeGarrette Blount or Rob Gronkowski. Last year, Sony Michel and Matt LaCosse couldn’t get it done. Losing fullback James Develin was key, too. Newton and free agent fullback Danny Vitale should flip the Patriots into one of the league’s most efficient redzone teams.
If the running backs can’t get it done, Newton is a pretty good last resort.
Newton can drag defenders into the endzone because of his size and strength. It should be a welcome change for New England in 2020.
Where SuperCam finds his Kryptonite
Accuracy
This is the area that’s hindered Newton since entering the league.
Since 2011, 122 quarterbacks have attempted 100 passes in the NFL. Newton ranks 75th among them with a 59.6 completion percentage, behind Brock Osweiler, Matt Schaub and Mike Glennon, among others.
In watching some film, he had accuracy issues all over the field. A lot of his errant throws came when he was under pressure and forced to throw on the run. That’s something that could be fixed with better protection and receivers.
To be successful in New England, he has to be more accurate.
So much of the Patriots’ offense involves checking down to the running back, like the video above. That was a tricky play because McCaffrey was inching back toward the first-down marker, but it’s the type of throw he can’t miss.
Newton became more comfortable with these check downs in recent years after the Panthers drafted McCaffrey, so that’s a sign he could make it work with James White.
Norv Turner, the Panthers’ offensive coordinator in 2018 and 2019, recently told Belichick that Newton could fit in New England, per ESPN’s Mike Reiss.
“When Cam was healthy [in 2018], and we were there with him, we were 6-2,” Turner said. “Just look at the tape – played his ass off. His issue was more health than anything else, and from what I understand, I don't think these are health issues that he can't overcome. He's had the time off now. I think he'll be great.”
Newton only played two games in 2019 due to injuries, but 2018 was his most accurate season as a passer. He had a career high 67.9 completion percentage, but a career low 10.6 yards per completion. That means Turner utilized a lot of short, highly efficient passes in his offense – something that Josh McDaniels often did for Brady. That’s the recipe for Newton to succeed as a passer with the Patriots.
While he figured out the short passing game in 2018, he still had some issues with the long ball. He’s got a cannon arm, but the ball doesn’t always go where he wants it.
This play was a mixture of poor decision-making and poor accuracy. He forced the ball into double coverage when he had the screen pass wide open to his right. Those types of forced passes aren’t something McDaniels and Belichick are used to seeing.
The tools are there, but it’s on Newton to pass more like he did in 2018 (67.9 completion percentage) than he did in his first six years (58.5).
Injuries
And here’s the biggest caveat for the Patriots.
Newton’s injury history is no secret, but let’s list them off just for transparency.
January 2014 – Left ankle ligament tear
Had surgery that March to increase his range of motion.
August 2014 – Chest rib fracture
Suffered in preseason game.
December 2014 – Back vertebral fracture
Suffered during a car accident.
Image courtesy of USA Today
October 2016 – Grade 1 concussion
Suffered on hit to the head in regular season game.
December 2016 – Partially torn rotator cuff on throwing shoulder
Suffered in regular season, didn’t get surgery until after the season.
January 2018 – Knee strain
Missed no games and did not require surgery.
October 2018 – Shoulder injury
Missed final two games of regular season, underwent offseason surgery.
September 2019 – Lisfranc fracture (foot)
Missed final 14 games of the regular season.
So, yeah, the injuries are clearly a concern.
This entire analysis is irrelevant is Newton can’t stay healthy. It had to be written as if he is healthy, but the whole thing is invalid if injuries reappear.
His size makes him seem invincible, but the truth is that he needs to do a better job protecting himself. It’s a risk for quarterbacks to be throwing their bodies around like a running back, even if it is the most effective play for the team.
The plan for New England might be to limit him early in the season before unleashing him fully down the stretch. It would be wise to try and win games without overusing Newton when they don’t have to.
Deploying a fully healthy and comfortable Cam Newton in the postseason is the best-case scenario for the Patriots, but it’ll take a patient regular season to get there.
How does he fit the offense?
This is a loaded question.
If you’re asking how Newton fits into the offense Josh McDaniels ran with Tom Brady, well, he doesn’t too much. But it’s foolish to think McDaniels and Belichick won’t change the system with Newton under center.
McDaniels has had Brady as his quarterback for 11 of his 15 years as an offensive coordinator or head coach. The other four years included the inauspicious trio of Matt Cassel, Kyle Orton and Sam Bradford.
The only time McDaniels has had a mobile quarterback was in Denver with Tim Tebow in 2010, but he didn’t start until McDaniels was fired.
So, there’s no precedent of what to expect when pairing McDaniels with a quarterback who can make plays with his feet.
After the signing, ESPN NFL analyst Mina Kimes pointed out that the beauty of this partnership is that anyone can fit with the Patriots. And as much as the Patriots’ system seems mundane with the same types of players (small/quick slot receivers, multi-dimensional running backs, etc.), Kimes is correct in that statement.
Before Randy Moss, the Patriots didn’t have a big-play, high-volume weapon. He set the single-season receiving touchdown record in Year 1.
When Tom Brady got hurt and suspended, the Patriots hadn’t functioned without him under McDaniels. Matt Cassel led the team to an 11-5 record in 2008, and the combination of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett went 3-1 in 2016.
You get the picture.
Here’s Kimes’ full analysis of the fit, which is definitely worth the listen if you’ve already made it this far in the article:
In terms of the passing game, I’m not expecting wholesale changes. Newton had success in 2018 when throwing short, quick passes. James White should feast in this system.
Two other weapons that I expect will benefit from the QB change are Mohamed Sanu and N’Keal Harry.
Sanu injured his ankle shortly after being traded to New England last season and (quite literally) never found his footing. Harry was injured to start the season and, like Sanu, didn’t have enough time to gel with Brady.
According to Next Gen Stats, Newton thrived throwing the ball between 11 and 20 yards in that super accurate 2018 season. This is the range where Sanu and Harry can thrive, with routes like the curl, the dig and the post.
If all goes according to plan, the Patriots’ running game will benefit most from Newton.
I expect the Patriots to utilize the 21 personnel (two RBs, one TE, two WRs) more often in 2020, especially since they’ll have a traditional fullback rather than a converted linebacker (shout out Elandon Roberts).
McDaniels will also frequently use the 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs, two WRs). Newton can be used as an extra runner (or blocker) in this formation. He should use the read-option and the run-pass option often, two sets that generally don’t work without the threat of a quarterback run.
In Carolina, Newton was at his best in the read-option. In the read-option, or zone-read, the quarterback can line up in the pistol or shotgun with a running back to his left or right. If the offense is in 21, there can be a running back on both sides. When he snaps the ball, the running back crosses to the opposite side and the quarterback holds out the ball for a handoff. At that point, it’s up to the quarterback to read the defense to see if the running back has a hole, or if the defense is overplaying and he can run it on his own the other way.
That was a lot of words, so here’s an example of Newton keeping the ball on a read-option play:
The Panthers were technically in the 21 there, using tight end Greg Olsen (to Newton’s right) as a blocker out of the backfield. He makes the key block on No. 28 to allow Newton to roam free.
On that play, the Falcons defense sold out for the handoff, leaving only one defender on the left side. Olsen took care of him, and Newton broke free.
The read-option will immensely help third-year running back Sony Michel, who has been nonexistent in the passing game since joining the Patriots. In his rookie season, the Patriots ran the ball 76 percent of the time when he was in the game. That dropped to 66 percent last season, but it’s still far too predictable for the defense. With Newton on the field, the defense can’t sell out for a handoff straight to Michel, like they could with Brady under center.
There are a lot of possibilities for Newton in this offense. Right now, we just don’t know what McDaniels and Belichick will come up with. That was my best guess, but anything is an option at this point. This is a mysterious time for New England.
Parting thoughts
This is a move that should benefit both sides.
Newton gets a chance to rebuild his value while playing for the greatest coach of all-time. If he plays well, he’s going to get a massive payday from someone next offseason. But playing well isn’t enough – he has to win. Playing for Belichick and missing the postseason would be a huge red flag for potential suitors. Teams might ask: If he couldn’t make the playoffs in New England, where could he make the playoffs?
As for the Patriots, this is costing them what it would cost the average person to go buy a Happy Meal. But instead of just getting the Happy Meal, McDonald’s adds a complimentary steak in the bag. The steak might be undercooked, but you have a gourmet meal if it’s not. If it is, you still have the Happy Meal to fall back on.
Even if the steak is undercooked, Newton will breathe some life in a Patriots fan base that was desperately trying to talk themselves into a guy who has thrown four career NFL passes.